India to see above-normal July rainfall; Northeast, East & South may face deficit: IMD

NEW DELHI: Overall monsoon rainfall in the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal in July, but most parts of northeast India and many parts of east India, including Bihar and West Bengal, extreme south peninsular India, and some areas of northwest India, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in the month, IMD said on Monday.

“Geographically, most parts of the country are likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall in July,” said the Met department chief, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, while asking authorities and people in central India, Uttarakhand, and Haryana to stay alert due to the risk of flooding.

He said though the above-normal rainfall can significantly benefit agriculture and water resources, it also brings potential risks such as flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health challenges, and ecosystem damage.

The Met department accordingly suggested reinforcement of infrastructure, utilisation of IMD's early warnings, enhanced surveillance and conservation efforts, and establishment of a robust response system in vulnerable sectors to manage the risk of above-normal rainfall.

“We should monitor the catchment areas of rivers such as the Godavari, Mahanadi, and Krishna. Our models show a high probability of above-normal rainfall in the upper Mahanadi catchment, which includes Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. There are several other rivers in the region. We must closely watch rainfall activity and the water levels in reservoirs,” said Mohapatra.

IMD forecast suggests a high chance of heavy rainfall in central India and the adjoining southern peninsula, which includes east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, adjoining areas of Vidarbha and Telangana, and parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra.

Quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall in July is expected to exceed 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during July, based on 1971-2020 data, is about 28 cm. July receives the highest monthly average rainfall in the four-month (June-Sept) monsoon season.

June, the first month of the rainy season, this year recorded above-normal rainfall, logging 9% more than normal rainfall over the country as a whole with northwest India reporting the highest, 42% more than normal rainfall, followed by central India with nearly 25% more than normal rainfall.

June this year experienced above-normal rainfall after three years of consecutive reporting deficit rainfall in the month during 2022-24. The month reported an 11% deficit in rainfall in 2024, even as it was overall the year of above-normal monsoon rainfall.

The impact of good rainfall in June can be seen in farming operations. Sown area data show that the acreage of kharif crops (such as paddy, sugarcane, coarse cereals, and cotton) was 262 lakh hectares as of June 27, which is 27 lakh hectares (over 11%) more than the acreage (235 lakh hectares) during the corresponding period last year.